Imagine this: You wake up one day in a world without technology - all the computers on the planet just disappeared. "If you want to go big in the business world, you need to have the right product at the right time.". With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. From pg48, A System of Invention, Lesch2006: Hrleins attitude was based not simply, or even primarily, on the situation of any particular area of research considered in isolation, but on his comprehensive overview of advance in areas in which chemistry and biomedicine intersected. The most demanding suppliers when it came to payments were the oil companies. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. 9, 4 (1969)] There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations. Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. A collection of medium-sized institutes might avoid these by being small enough to still be open to new ideas, while there are enough that any attempt to squash promising research can be avoided by relocating to another institute, and any research requiring large-scale resources can be done by a consortium of medium institutes. And you know what? First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? In reality, until quartz gauges were introduced in formation testers, this argument was highly ill-conceived, but it certainly provoked a lot of animated discussion. Put simply, it's not the time lead or the technology; it's what a firm does with its time lead and . It is universally admitted that the unicorn is a supernatural being and one of good omen; thus it is declared in the Odes, in the Annals, in the biographies of illustrious men, and in other texts of unquestioned authority. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. The benefit for someone like DARPA of a forecast like Moores law is that it provides one fixed trend to gauge overall timing to within a decade or so, and look for those dots which have lagged behind and become reverse salients.25 For an entrepreneur, the advantage of exponential thinking is more fatalistic: being able to launch in the window of time between just after technical feasibility but before someone else randomly gives it a try; if wrong and it was always impossible, it doesnt matter when one launches, and if wrong because timing is wrong, ones choice is effectively random and little is lost by delay. Its only rocket science., Uber/Lyft/DiDi: Taxis & buses. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. So, it seems that rapid progress depends on crazy people. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . 1. The speed of light imposes theoretical bounds on rates of information transfer, so that it was once reasonable to wonder whether these limits, in conjunction with physical limits to microminiaturization of switching and conducting elements, might give the biological system an irreducible advantage. Maybe somebody found a new gene. Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? But recent estimates [9, 10], which are summarized in Tables 7.1 and 7.2, indicate that this is not so, and that the balance of advantage in terms of sheer information-handling power may eventually like with the computer rather than the brain. . The lesson of history is that for every lesson, there is an equal and opposite lesson. My partner Chris Dixon describes our job as VCs as investing in good ideas that look like bad ideas. I ended up moving to Japan and working there for many years. But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. And rental bikes., Instacart/Ocado/Uber Eats: Well do Kozmo.com/Webvan again, minus the bankruptcy., PayPal: Everyone elses online payments has failed, so well do it again, with anonymous cryptography! He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. Cook calls this cracking the nut. Bad ideas that look like bad ideas are also easily dismissed; as the description implies, they are simply bad and thus likely to be trapdoors through which your investment dollars will vanish. It is surprising that some have never tried or attempted to keep off technology even for a day. All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. What was systemic in Hrleins way of thinking was his concept of the organizational pattern or patterns that will best facilitate the production of valuable results in the areas in which medicine and chemistry interact. This technological advancement is believed to be able to address the knowledge gap in neurophysiology and neurological disorder. One of the ideas is to have sort of a SWAT team of people who go around looking for how to connect the dots all day long in these serendipitous ways. Use Answer Strategies. Reflections on Timing and Technology Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the fait accompli. neural net, Bitcoin, economics, history, insight porn, sociology/tech, decision theory, [For support of website features (tablesorting, collapsible sections, image zooming, link annotation popups/popins & transclusions, sidenotes), please enable JavaScript.]. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. Once the initial shock of the situation wore off, you'd start getting ready for work. At Rice U.s Baker Inst., we find the Shell Center for Sustainability. One guy will do most of the work. It sounds like Facebook! She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. I asked Fred where the funds had come from, and he responded, The meeting with the General Dynamics board was a bust and I knew we needed money for Monday, so I took a plane to Las Vegas and won $114,135.9$27,000.01973. I said, You mean you took our last $21,136.3$5,000.01973how could you do that? He shrugged his shoulders and said, What difference did it make? Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. Its not enough to theorize about the possibility or prototype something in the lab if there is then no followup. Time and race number: done. I basically think all the ideas of the 90s that everybody had about how this stuff was going to work, I think they were all right, they were all correct. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. As I waited somewhat nervously to give my first technical presentation in 1975, several papers were introduced with an anecdote about the speakers experiences 25 years before. The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. A portion of the output pulse of the microchip laser was incident into the fiber delay line, and then, the backward reflection light induced the formation of the pulse. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. The world economy grows at something like 2% a year, labor costs generally seem to go up, prices of computers and robotics usually falls Do industry projections expect to grow their sales by <25% a year? After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. Advances in technology have brought us online banking, smart cars, smart TVs, lightning fast computers, and the latest buzz: virtual reality. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Its a universal rule. 4.). The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. These23 bulbs (each an original in its inventors eyes) varied tremendously in how they fleshed out the abstraction of electric lightbulb. Different inventors employed various shapes for the filament, different materials for the wires, different strengths of electricity, different plans for the bases. (This is assisted by the fact that patents no longer require even the pretense of a working model.) Thiel (Zero to One; original): Every moment in business happens only once. 1. And even when there are stocks available to buy, you only benefit based on the specificslike one of the existing stocks being a winner, rather than all the stocks being eaten by some new startup. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. Bandit settings can further assume that options are restless and the optimal option may drift over time or run out or switch, in which case one also estimates the probability that an option has switched, and when it does, one changes over to the new best option; instead of the regular Thompson sampling where bad options become ever more unlikely to be tried, a restless bandit results in constant low-level exploration because one must constantly check lest one fails to notice a switch. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) While it is possible to understand that, under extreme pressure, Fred was acting to save Federal Express from almost certain bankruptcy, and even to empathize with what he did, it nevertheless appeared to be a serious breach of conductDecember1975 was also the month that settled the matter of the forged loan guarantee documents for the Union Bank. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Tesla: instead of just building batteries and selling them to Detroit, we are going to build our own cars from scratch plus own the distribution network. Everyone will buy it simply because itll be slightly better., Airbnb: Well max out our credit cards to let people illegally rent out their air mattresses en route to eating the hotel industry. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. Many of these models may require transients much too long to be practical in a well test, but may be quite effective for analysis of production data (Fig. End-users love cryptography, right? Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. The small groups simply polluted the genetic literature with false positives, which are still gradually being debunked and purged. But to come very near to a true theory, and to grasp its precise application, are two very different things, as the history of science teaches us. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. Teresa Amabile and her colleagues found that the most significant driver of positive emotions and motivation at work was . With few exceptions, established offline firms have failed to catch up to today's Internet leaders. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. Excerpts from The First Miracle Drugs: How the Sulfa Drugs Transformed Medicine, John Lesch2006. This product supports Secure Hash Algorithm (SHA-256) encryption and authentication technologies, and it includes a Federal . When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. This is especially difficult as . You dont want to publish a paper that says, After the study, we came to the conclusion that VR is useless right now and that we should just not have a job for 20 years. There were a few people that basically came to that conclusion. However, those are precisely the startups that crazy people will have done years before when they looked like bad ideas, avoiding the waste of delay. Mark Zuckerberg, in 2004, wanted nothing more than to sell Facebook for a few million dollars so he could work on his P2P filesharing program, Wirehog, commenting that the sale price just needed to be large enough to propel Wirehog. Youtube was a dating site. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. . So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. Are we running out of oil and gas? During a recession and a cleantech backlash. I knew immediately that Bourdet was really on to something. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. An additional analogy from reinforcement learning is PSRL, which handles more complex problems by committing to a strategy and following it until the end and either success/failure. I was actually reading some earlier papers. While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. Google: we are building the worlds 20th search engine at a time when most of the others have been abandoned as being commoditized money losers. Explains that technology refers to a wide range of electronic materials and learning methods, including video production, distance learning, and smart classrooms. On an individual level, ideas are worthless because so many others have them toomultiple invention is the rule, and not the exception. They can stretch out to around 250 ms (1/4 second) or so, at which point reverberation takes over. Can I conceive of a team better equipped to address the market needs that might walk through our doors tomorrow? Want to read all 2 pages? This did not deter Marconi from the attempt, even though he was as unaware of the existence of the Heaviside layer as everyone else. Upload your study docs or become a Develop your point through body paragraph (s), and conclude your paper by exploring the meaning you derive from your reflection. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. Returning to Donald Michie: one could make fun of his extremely overly-optimistic AI projections, and write him off as the stock figure of the biased AI researcher blinded by the Maes-Garreau law where AI is always scheduled for right when a researcher will retire19 but while he was wrong, it is unclear this was a mistake because in other cases, an apparently doomed research projectMarconis attempt to radio across the Atlantic oceansucceeded because of an unknown unknownthe KennellyHeaviside layer20. List all technologies that you use every hour, and state your purpose of using this technology. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. We couldnt know for sure that such projections were wrong, and the amount of money being spent back then on AI was truly trivial (and the commercial spinoffs likely paid for it all anyway). Should be entreated not to hit the nail on the head should be timing your technology reflection not hit... Bad ideas development organizations, academic institutions, and state your purpose using! Conception of the world could be solved by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an search... The initial shock of the situation wore off, you mean you took our last $ 21,136.3 5,000.01973how. It make equal and opposite lesson to catch up to today & # ;. Have failed to catch up to today & # x27 ; t. for! Equipped to address the knowledge gap in neurophysiology and neurological disorder my turn, I couldnt resist out. 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