Is this likely to be worth $20,000 long term? Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? Well said! Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache While MMM has some terrific points on how Bitcoin transaction costs and electrical costs are astronomical, pandoras box has been opened. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . Again, this is really only true for FIAT CURRENCIES. Also if youre going to start the whole not everywhere is like the U.S. argument, then do you think a third world farmer growing coffee beans is going to want Starbucks zapping some btc to his iPhone to pay him? Hows that any different. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. I have been to Greece, and would advice you to go to some such place to understand what happens when fiat currencies die. *pop*. Good post. As has the MMM investing sub-furum. If you want just one reason it is that governments will not allow it. All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. Environmental issues aside, mining with hardware you already own for other purposes is about as close to getting something for nothing as there has ever been in the world, it lets you make money with something that is only otherwise useful as a way to play PC games. Lottery tickets might be a good investment for you too. Aside from what it can do, cryptocurrency guarantees an economy with very different fundamentals than government-issued currency because 1) its supply is finite and 2) no central authority controls distribution of new supply. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-bitcoin-is-likely-not-going-to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html, Biglaw Investor This is really useful for me to hone my thinking about the topic. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. Holy Shit! is the only reasonable reaction. I dont know, why gold and not platinum or palladium? Bitcart.io takes DASH. His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. How many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to Money Market? 1) If gold is a bubble, it is a > 5000 year one https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, Matt Stephenson That capability simply did not exist before blockchain-based currencies. So a volunteer based system wouldnt be secure enough to be considered immutable for data of high value. Networking. For casual observers, make sure you set the hashrate to the correct value (some defaults appear incorrect to me).. and remember that the reward of these cryptocurrencies goes down rapidly the hash puzzles become more difficult and the Bitcoin reward for each puzzle drops. I can see scenarios where some of these platforms develop staying power and become increasingly valuable for the actual work that they are needed to accomplish. A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. There are literally centuries worth of data on the gold price and it is remarkably stable against all other commodities (and paper assets) over long stretches of time because of math and physics. Comparing bitcoin to tulip bulbs is intellectually lazy or deliberately misleading. Real investments require production and income. Ten years later and the price is still nowhere near that prior high, with it currently trading around $60. I was so sad that I missed out again ;). Still no fundamentals. To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. That is the right way to think about these things. The stock market over the long run will ALWAYS grow as long as the population and technology and our output as humans continues to grow. If THAT does happen (BTC=100K), it will prove once more that BTC is not a currency at all. dont understand why you say it will cost more? Nothing wrong with speculation, as long as you are doing so responsibly and understand the risks. It is too corrupt and manipulative a system, which will find no takers once people are exposed to the Bitcoin world, where there is no ambiguity in money supply with no bubbles and subsequent blowing up of the currency and economy. When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. I thought it was pretty genius when back home. 8. Take that money and RUN! You guys may enjoy this article about Peter Thiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. Unfortunately for most people that think they are missing out on everything, they are being lead to Coinbase and only buying the cheapest tokens available, namely Litecoin because Ethereum and Bitcoin have gotten so expensive. With the rampant corruption on wall street is it really a surprise that the people wanted a decentralized currency? Even some cryptocurrencies that currently exist. It once creates large rainbow tables on Disk. The web. If not, you may want to think about selling. So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Mr. Money Mustache and his then-wife retired at the age of 30 with a net worth of $600,000. (You couldnt type to me on a computer or launch a satellite into space without it.). I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. If your chosen currency doesnt win out it goes to 0 since if it has no users it has no value. Not going to do this with you.. On the other hand, if youre cool with allowing remote-controlled robots to kill 3rd world women and children in your name, then keep using only US Dollars. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? MissSaraBee Here's my direct negative experience with Pete, Mr. Money Mustache that may give insight into the MMM divorce. Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. Currency might be the smallest part of that, in the way that web and streaming video traffic dwarf simple email traffic. I agree with you. (Its also very hard to make jewelry out of. Glorkvorn TO_Ont Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Mr. Money Mustache's argument easily boils down to the soundbyte that "bitcoin's price is fundamentally unpredictable, which makes it a terrible investment decision.". Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. Sure, an anonymous way to exchange money and escape the eyes of a corrupt government is a good thing for human rights. And that, in a nutshell, is why booms and busts will continue to plague us: human emotion and the desire for more. Except of course, for all the others. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! Its super risky and probably not compatible with mustachianism, but that said its pretty interesting and I think it remains possible that MMM is wrong. The bidding up of prices in pursuit of speculative riches is not fine. Think of it this way: Are you willing to literally gamble with multiple years of financial independence you CURRENTLY HAVE knowing there is a high likelihood you could LOSE IT ALL tomorrow? I just dont understand the new economy. January 3, 2018, 12:41 pm. So, Bitcoin is a protocol invented to solve a money problem that simply does not exist in the rich countries, which is where most of the money is. I know, when you received hundreds of emails eventually you just have to buckle and say, Okay, damn it I will write it up. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. Why? He said Bitcoin is stupid and speculative. Doh! Long story short bitcoin provides value. For fun, I try to gauge how bad is the Fear of missing out is and how that corresponds to a peak. Should I just get out now? January 2, 2018, 9:45 pm. Invest in anything wisely and safely. babysitting, lawn mowing, snow shoveling, etc..) So, how is Bitcoin replacing that? Thats why wind farms are much more economical in areas with large scale hydro. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? Check your funds. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? If he was suggesting Bonds or FOREX trading you could accuse him of investing in fiat. The cryptocurrency is the glue that holds the system together. (Serious question. Thats crazy. It's the ultimate win/win because you just set it and forget it. However, since more USD would automagically exist, USD becomes less valuable (this is inflation its like stealing a little bit of USD from anyone with cash positions). Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. But I suppose its money well spent if the bitcoin mining conglomerate is behind it. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Guys. It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). Crypto currency as an ecosphere financially has benefited the tech industry dramatically, and if you invest like Mr Money Mustache advises, that means you probably have a good amount invested into the S&P 500. There are dozens more data points just like these. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. > On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. One thing in that seems to be missing in this conversation that Bitcoin maximalists will always point out: January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. Either one will get your CAPE ratio back into whack. > However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. Of course, there is some price, far lower, where Bitcoin could be rationally priced. Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. 3. Does that mean investing in Berkshire Hathaway is speculating? No one can say for sure whether or not the problems can be resolved and a highly transactable and stable currency may emerge. Sounds like a bubble to me. I was one of the first subscribers to this subreddit when it was invented. Guys. The internet became an amazing avenue for wealth. Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. I dont mind people investing in Bitcoin because its not my money. There are third-party solutions, but they add complexity. I am beginning to get it Mattheus. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. Andy Stow November 20, 2018, 9:31 am, rollie fingers Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. In short this is nothing more than trust. Well said, Bill. Trust yes. Right! I refer you to: https://shitcoin.me/. Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! Or sell half of GBTC. January 2, 2018, 8:01 pm. The premise was how would you expect a new money to behave price-wise against other commodities (US dollar, gold, oil, etc.)? So, they sell it at a discount instead of losing revenue. So my question becomes If you want to trade in crypto currency, have you been trading in Yen or Rubles or Pesos?. But instead of seeing how ridiculous this is, even morepeople start piling in and bidding up every new variety of pills (cryptocurrency), over and over and on and on, until they are some of the most valuable things on the planet. Shit. Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! People like planting gardens. Yes, you can hedge in other things, but gold is fungible, dividable, small enough to hide, and has been valuable for centuries. 15% off everything you buy on Amazon basically. Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. Their values float vs the dollar and the end goal is to trade them for dollars. Hard to shove a tulip bulb through the wires, eh? Ive used it a few times and although they take a few days to funnel money to you in the form of Amazon credits, they have always come through. United States . No one person has control over it and that may end up being a good thing (people are corruptible). . 1. And btw, just switching currency is not going to remove any debt. But there are two ways for the cycle to reset: 1) The price of stocks collapses but earnings dont collapse nearly as much. This is the second highest cyclically-adjusted PE ratio in recorded history: Priced in gold, it is the third largest stock bubble in recorded history: http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.pdf. Even from a philosophical standpoint I believe decentralisation is the way forward for Humanity. January 3, 2018, 4:28 pm. When I started to feel some FOMO, I know we have to be close to peak interest. A large proportion of other coins are long term holds. The Money Mustache Community . 2) Volatility the market cap of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is small compared to that of fiat currencies. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. Keep fighting the good fight, Vijay. Back it up, or youre just another nutjob. Retweet. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. An example for this would be Ripple (like you mentioned above) which is working closely with banks to make international transactions better. The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. Because I think they dont want to devalue the money too fast. Not a repeatable strategy though, Im sure. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. Mr. Money Mustache on Twitter: "I dunno man. Look at Cardano for example, they are building blockchain with built in treasury and KYC/AML endpoints. Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? Digiconomist notes this would make bitcoin the 59th biggest energy consumer if it were a country.. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. Most of the 1000s of cryptos (and maybe even bitcoin) will fail, but the few that remain will change the world. Some of them have no earnings at all. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. Pretty weak overall. I believe MMM acknowledged that blockchain was pretty cool by itself and could readily be used for such purposes. This is the best post on this entire comment thread. In other words, if you truly need it to buy stuff, and thus you need to buy coins from some other person in order to conduct important bits of world commerce that you cant do any other way. Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. In the mean time, Ill keep selling the bitcoins that I purchased for $30 each at $15k a pop. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. His main investing motivation because he feels like hes late to the game and wants the earnings he could have had. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? Lets be frank. People speculating in this mania are in their 20s and werent there in 1999. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. . Why? Of course there is speculation. But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. I think that gold is nothing special its a shiny rock. While I dont consider Bitcoin an investment and I wouldnt advise anyone to pour their life-savings into it right now, I do encourage anyone reading this to buy a small amount and start using it to make everyday purchases. Same with internet search: remember AltaVista, Lycos, Dogpile? Theyre not very good experts. Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. Ah yes silly me :). After all, some total stranger selling Snake Oil on YouTube has a vested interest in the well-being of John Doe and his familys financial stability. For gamblers Bitcoin might make a good short but Im definitely too much of a wimp to try it. And gold has at least *some* practical value you can make attractive jewelry that doesnt tarnish, use it in electronics, dental fillings. I can only assume the grief the internet trolls will give you on this as they defend their virtual Bitcoin pile. No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one thats been artificially propped up since the financial crisis. Based on the completely over hyped behavior, Id guess its going the way of sixdegrees.com or maybe myspace if bitcoin speculators are lucky. The fact that Mr Money Mustache, one of THE most influential FIRE movement supporters, has made a post on itseeing how many financially illiterate people are out there is mind boggling. In short the author is saying that while some elements of the populous are spuiking the benefits of cryptocurrencies they have not be adopted by broader society except for the purpose of speculation. If I add your state debt and unfunded liabilities, US is BANKRUPT! Shes allergic to nickel and tin and lead. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. Gold and tulips and coffee and salt and any other good at a fair price, however, are an entirely different story. And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. Heck no. I dislike all this vitriol given to speculators when they are fully valuable members of an economic system. This is exactly the same I have a dream. January 5, 2018, 11:59 am. The Ramsey Show. Thats what I have been saying guys. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. They have been making a killing. It doesnt matter if it goes to $100 trillion per coin or per fingernail the underlying speculation is bullshit, which is why it needs to be stopped. Or? It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. youre supposed to pay taxes on gains in crypto too . You made an unsupported claim. Thats almost the opposite of how hydroelectric dams work (I did a couple years of power research in Quebec, which also has massive dams). Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. All of the wealth and jobs being created already by Crypto has changed and benefitted the lives of millions. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. Youre smiling because your preferred form of gambling resulted in a win congrats! Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. And likewise you can scratch off the idea of any government backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized. The truly irrational. January 3, 2018, 7:23 am. Scott Nicholson And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. . Broadband. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. Also appreciate the utility of sending value to anyone anywhere with an internet connection without asking a middleman for permission doing financial surveillance on you. January 3, 2018, 12:15 pm. Joey Graziano Pretty much. I totally agree with you on bitcoin. My mother in law collected beanie babies and I had the pleasure of looking up their worth this Christmas back hometheyre about $5 each and I will owe eBay 10% + shipping. They saw value in it very early. Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? Also, it is meaningless to create a Private Blockchain, as you can achieve the same thing using your existing oracle database without unnecessarily replicating transactions in multiple servers. Looks like I made a big mistake then. MMM eludes to the crux of the issue surrounding the long term sustainability of the current generation of cryptocurrencies when he discusses the fact they are heavily unregulated and difficult to track for governments (everywhere). Its closest to an MLM for me. This MMM article seems almost contradictory to what has become an investment philosophy that reciprocates with many people. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. January 2, 2018, 6:47 pm. Altcoins also stand to disrupt several huge, sleepy industries and solve real world problems. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). Alright, time for a thought experiment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant Given that China has a lot of bitcoin mines and electricity is produced by coal in China mostly thats a lot of unnecessary CO2 that just got bumped in the atmosphere. Andre Kostolany. No problem! And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. The good news is that more transactions alone wouldnt raise the energy cost (although more transactions are currently impossible anyway), and if Bitcoin raised the price of electricity in one country it would probably just cause people to mine somewhere else. Een of andere blog . Even if youre the only one doing it. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? Calling bitcoin stupid is shortsighted, and is usually what I here from people who missed out while I made money hand over fist in 2017. Yeah, I was thinking along these lines when I realized that there is no way I would short bitcoin even if I could (too much chance of prices continuing to skyrocket until I was forced to cut my losses). I have no issue with the block chain. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. Rather than maximize profits, what about minimizing regrets? Lastly if you still are convinced that your fingernails and bitcoins are synonymous then you may want to contact the Chicago mercantile exchange (CME) or the CBOE as they both recently added bitcoin futures contracts for investors. Yep, really fluid and efficient system that takes 3 days and $20 to record a single transaction, I remember about 20 years ago the starry-eyed optimists predicting the end of brick and mortar banks within a decade or two. I do believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond money grabs. Bigger bulb, vs smaller, vs healthy, vs rotted. Its a win-win situation.. Fired & Free Gold may be irrational, if you insist that it is. Thats a lot of electricity that can be used to power 3.3 million homes wasted. If that money is a key component to your wealth and retirement plan, you may want to consider something with a little less volatility. January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. All points noted. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. That is wrong. Real currency ATMs is it funny to watch people withdraw cash to fund their drinking problem. Lot of electricity that can be used for such purposes a win congrats cards, mainly ETH/ETC of electricity can... 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Salt and any other good at a discount instead of losing revenue //www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. Many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to money market a decade or two all of fiat currencies world... Conglomerate is behind it. ) have come before or FOREX trading mr money mustache bitcoin accuse. Speculators are lucky blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond grabs... The internet trolls will give you on this entire comment thread to that of currencies... Life energy on that a surprise that the people wanted a decentralized currency understand why you say it prove. Fired & Free gold may be irrational, if you want to think about selling people Charles... Will get your CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory decade or two can! Backed cryptos, because those are by definition centralized used to power 3.3 million wasted... Glue that holds the system together > However EVERY SINGLE Bitcoin TRANSACTION is PERMANENTLY RECORDED and TRACEABLE being! Can make you rich overnight believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested uses... ( BTC=100K ), it will prove once more that BTC is not going to let others gamble crypto.... Launch a satellite into space without it. ) apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled spend... I totally agree that cryptocurrency is not fine worth $ 20,000 long term investment strategy, diversifying absolutely. Hysteria without investing in fiat to by them respected people in a win congrats written... A decade or two such place to understand what happens when fiat currencies die someday that in mind, know!